TruthBegins

I’ve seen some bad sports marketing campaigns in my day, but the New Jersey Nets may have just taken the cake. As you may have heard, fresh off taking the “New Jersey” off their jerseys, which didn’t win them points with this proud Garden State resident, the Nets are now telling their fans to root for players on other teams by giving out double-sided jerseys with star opponents on them. Look, I understand the majority of people who go to Nets games are going to see other teams’ star players, since the Nets don’t really have any of their own since trading Vince Carter. I mean, I love Devin Harris, but he’s not going to be an enormous box-office draw. So in theory, the campaign makes sense. And I realize that the Nets are desperate for money in a tough economy. I get all that. But I just feel like it’s something you just can’t do to your players. You can promote coming to a game against the Cavs to see LeBron James, you’d be stupid not to, but to actually push merchandise of other teams? I hate the principle of the Nets’ players looking out into the stands and seeing a sea of Kobe Bryant jerseys.

In addition, have the Nets stopped to think that it’s a terrible message to send to potential free agents? “Sure Joe Johnson, sign on and we’ll promote the hell out of Dwight Howard coming in to destroy you!” Here’s a quote from Nets chief executive Brett Yormark:

"The reality of the situation is that we target the casual sports fan in New Jersey and New York. As much as they like the Nets, they also like the opposing star players. The Match-Up plan enables us to market our players as well as the star players in the league. We’re a young team, the NBA is a league of stars, and we’re not ashamed to say that our fans are coming to watch the opposing star players as much as ours."

Why aren’t they ashamed of that? They should be. Isn’t it a problem when the best you can do for a counterpart for a LeBron jersey is Jarvis Hayes? Is anyone going to wear the Hayes side of that? I mean, is there anyone in America who currently owns a Hayes jersey, period? I think if a kid shows up at school with a Hayes jersey, he’s asking for a pounding from his peers. How about Courtney Lee, who Nets fans haven’t even seen in their uniform, matched up with Bryant in a rematch of their one-sided NBA Finals? He’s No. 6 – maybe they should have marketed it as a throwback Kenyon Martin jersey. Even their two most marketable stars, Harris and Brook Lopez, are overshadowed by brighter stars Dwyane Wade and Dwight Howard, respectively. Look, the idea here is to build up your own team’s identity. I still think it’s unconscionable to completely abandon any pretense that your games are anything but an outpost for LeBron and Kobe to pillage the Meadowlands.

Wouldn’t it have been enough to simply give out jerseys of the Nets? Are five jerseys of your own team not enough of a draw, rather than exterminating brand loyalty and replacing it with an investment in other teams’ players? The idea is to get the younger generation hooked on Nets players, rather than say, Wade, so that they’ll come more than twice a year. Because I’m a generous guy, how about I offer up some free marketing advice? How about: “The Start of Something Big” – and stick Devin and Brook on the posters and billboards? Then call attention to the fact that the Nets are building toward being under the cap for 2010 and signing some big-time talent, but that a couple of key pieces are already on the roster. Then in 2010, you’re all set up for “The Future is Now.” But the Nets need to figure out that putting themselves on a level below their opponents demeans the franchise and kills its value, and that it’s tough to break that cycle once you’ve started that trend. As such, I’ll look forward to next year’s marketing campaign, with jerseys of the loaded 2010 Free Agents – on their respective other teams.

ESPN is reporting that in an effort to lure Trevor Ariza to the Cavs, LeBron James told him he’d stay with the Cavaliers past this coming year. Ariza, like me, was not convinced, and will likely sign with Houston, I hear to be closer to his kid, who lives in Los Angeles, California. (Which begs the question… isn’t Los Angeles even closer to Los Angeles?) And also, he says, because of the opportunity to grow as a player, which he apparently can’t do on the title-contending Lakers or Cavs.

Sidebar: When did Trevor Ariza turn into Scottie Pippen? I actually like Ariza, I know he plays some D, and I know he had a very nice playoff run for the Lakers. But how about we see him score nine points a game before someone gives him $33 million, as the Rockets are? Because he’s topped out at 8.9. At least he’s done that twice.

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that LeBron would throw away his opportunity to have the eyes of the sports world exclusively on him next year to get Trevor Ariza. Maybe Ben Gordon, but not Ariza, no matter how much he enjoyed torching him for 50 in high school. Even if he has no intentions of leaving Cleveland — and honestly, who knows what his intentions are? — I can’t see him being that desperate as to tell Ariza that he’s not going anywhere as a sales pitch. I’m not saying it didn’t happen, it just seems fishy.

Of course, he might not have expected this information to get out via some "source." In which case, it kind of makes this commercial teasing the massive ensuing marketing campaign ring a little hollow. LeBron James wants to be a Global Icon. (His words, not mine.) So why would he risk it getting out that the upcoming 2010 sweepstakes, in which he’d be the most coveted free agent since some guy named Michael Jordan? Of course, the Knicks desperately hope things will go different with LeBron than they did with Jordan.

The point is, if LeBron really said this, and meant it, it’s a surprising misstep for an extremely savvy and image-conscious budding captain of industry. I’m a little surprised he’s shown his cards, if that truly is what he’s done here, but it’s also sending a message to the Cavs loud and clear: "We’re not good enough." If it’s that important to him to get Trevor Ariza, I wouldn’t expect him to want to stay there if he doesn’t feel that their chances have improved.

In summation, I think what you can read into this is that if LeBron feels he has a championship-caliber team around him at the end of next season, a team with a future, he probably wants to stay there. But if he’s perceiving that GM Danny Ferry can’t get the job done, you’re going to be seeing him at Marquee starting July 2010.

**UPDATE**

Predictably, LeBron’s people are now denying that he had a conversation with Ariza. So if Ariza’s people lied — which I’m not sure they did — it’d be to pump up his value and reputation by making it seem like LeBron was recruiting him. Regardless of whether its true, that would be why they leaked it. It’s not a shock that LeBron is denying it for the reasons I detailed above, that he wouldn’t want to cut out the legs from under his upcoming major media blitz.

Maybe he truly does want to stay there, maybe he wants to keep his options open. Maybe he just wants people to think he’s keeping his options open. Nobody really knows. My guess is he’s going to stay there, but there really is no way to know for sure right now.

I started this post Friday night / Saturday morning after the Lakers took out the Rockets 108-94 in Game 3.  After watching the Magic take a 2-1 series lead earlier in the night, and watching LeBron continue to dominate the day before, I pretty much saw everything I needed to put my predictions in print.

However, for the sake of journalistic integrity, I decided not to post this article until I also saw Game 3 of the Nuggets-Mavericks series.  Well, waiting one more day took a lot of the suspense out of these predictions!

In that one day, the playoff picture became much clearer in two ways:

1. Yao Ming broke his left foot and is out for the remainder of the playoffs
2. The NBA refs missed the Mavs “foul-to-give” prior to Melo’s game-clinching 3-pointer

Both series are now over.

When Tracy McGrady went down earlier this season, Houston completely restructured their offense to flow through Yao, and the center flourished in his expanded role.  Without Yao and T-Mac, the Rockets simply do not have the offensive firepower to stay with the Lakers.  As much as I love Shane Battier and the Rockets, and I was really REALLY looking forward to an epic 6/7-game series featuring the Kobe-Shane offense-defense battle, this series is now finished.  The Rockets might be able to ride home court emotion to a win today, but it is far more likely that their Game 1 victory becomes the Rockets last win this season.

The Mavs showed great potential in their opening round dismantling of the Spurs, and I was fully expecting the Mavs to make the Nuggets series competitive yesterday.  And they did, until the waning seconds of Game 3.  In fairness, this loss can’t be pinned on the refs.  If Antoine Wright correctly wraps up Carmelo with his arms, as all players are taught to do in foul-to-give situations, then the refs are a non-story today.  Furthermore, even if the refs called the foul-to-give, the Nuggets would still be in-bounding the ball with ~4-5 seconds on the clock, depending on which of the two missed calls the refs whistle, and it is certainly possible that the Nuggets hit a similar shot to win the game. Regardless, the bottom-line here is that the series stands at 3-0, and the Mavs are finished.

Same 3-0 logic applies to the Cavs series, although this series was over at 0-0 once LeBron walked onto the court.

And without Kevin Garnett powering the Celtics, they’re going down to the Magic in six.  The Celtics gave us a great series against the Bulls, but Dwight Howard and the 3-point shooting Magic are going to be too much for the Celtics too overcome without KG.

That sets up an interesting Lakers-Nuggets battle out West, and a less-interesting Cavs-Magic series in the East.  It’s obvious that LeBron is on a mission and we are all witness.  While the Cavs will get tested (i.e., lose a game, maybe two) in this series, you can safely pencil LeBron and the Cavs into the NBA Finals.

Out West, the Nuggets are going to prove to be a dangerous opponent for the Lakers, particularly if the Cavs quickly dismantle the Magic and the Lakers start to look ahead to their much-hyped Finals opponent.  The Nuggets are surprisingly deep, and if Dahntay Jones can apply similarly effective Battier-like defense on Kobe, the Nuggets will have a fighting chance.  In the end, the Nuggets series will prove to be the Lakers “test of will” that the Rockets series should have been.  Lakers in 6.

Now, the ultimate showdown: Kobe and the Lakers vs. LeBron and the Cavs.  An NBA fan’s dream match-up!  (Not to mention the NBA execs – imagine the ratings for this one!)  I’ll save the more in-depth analysis for when this series actually comes to fruition, but in short, I expect the Lakers supporting cast to be too much for the Cavs.  LeBron might average a whooping 37-12-9 in the series, and likely outduel Kobe in the process, but can his teammates keep up with the Lakers’ Gasol, Bynum, and Odom?  I don’t think so.

LeBron vs. Kobe.  Lakers vs. Cavs.  An epic.  Lakers in 7.