TruthBegins

I’m in a fantasy football keeper league. Last year, I had the good fortune of drafting Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Andre Johnson. As such, my partner and I came to a crossroads this year, and long story short, we ended up with Forte, Andre Johnson and Tom Brady.

With every week that goes by, I realize that we let the wrong guy go, which will haunt me for years. Lost in the uncreative media’s need to embrace one guy – namely Adrian Peterson – as the best running back in the NFL is that Chris Johnson is quite possibly better.

It’s been well-hidden by how horrible the Titans have been this season, but Johnson has been damn near unstoppable, and that’s for a team that’s now 2-6 and has had to play from behind for much of their games. Johnson’s speed is his main attribute – he somehow famously ran a 4.23 40-yard dash at the Combine – but he’s developed shiftiness that will allow him to be a solid goal-line back. He’s also a decent receiver out of the backfield.

Through eight games, Johnson is on pace to run for just under 2,000 yards, and he’s picking up steam, in large part to his propensity to break touchdown runs of up to 89 yards. Granted, his outstanding yards-per-carry, which is nearly 7, is buoyed by his many long touchdowns, but that shouldn’t be held against him.

As long as the NFL can’t process marketing two players – think about how long Ladainian Tomlinson was the only guy you’d see in ads – then CJ won’t get the shine he deserves. It doesn’t help that the Titans are putrid.

But as much as I hate to admit it – given my keeper league follies – Chris Johnson’s going to be around a long time. And he’s going to be a great one!

Say what you will about how they build their team, how they outspend everyone else in the game, about their economic and big-market advantages.

But the Yankees are where it’s at in baseball. And it’s been that way forever.

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Welcome back to 1996! Or perhaps more accurately, 2007, when Brett was last seen on top of his game leading the Green Bay Packers to a NFC Championship game. After an ultimately unsuccessful stint with the NY Jets, Brett Favre is back at it again. With some assistance from Adrian Peterson and a friendly schedule, he’s led the Vikings to an undefeated record, including a near-miracle game winning TD this past weekend:

What a throw! (And what a catch!) Hopefully, this will temporarily quell the naysayers that wish Brett a speedy career exit. Most are simply fed up with the annual retirement drama, but I say, let the man play the game he loves. It’s not Favre’s fault that his annual "Do I have one more run left in me?" debate makes for such compelling media drama. Simply put, if the man is still performing at a level worthy of a starting NFL quarterback, consider yourself fortunate to still be watching.

I’ve seen some bad sports marketing campaigns in my day, but the New Jersey Nets may have just taken the cake. As you may have heard, fresh off taking the “New Jersey” off their jerseys, which didn’t win them points with this proud Garden State resident, the Nets are now telling their fans to root for players on other teams by giving out double-sided jerseys with star opponents on them. Look, I understand the majority of people who go to Nets games are going to see other teams’ star players, since the Nets don’t really have any of their own since trading Vince Carter. I mean, I love Devin Harris, but he’s not going to be an enormous box-office draw. So in theory, the campaign makes sense. And I realize that the Nets are desperate for money in a tough economy. I get all that. But I just feel like it’s something you just can’t do to your players. You can promote coming to a game against the Cavs to see LeBron James, you’d be stupid not to, but to actually push merchandise of other teams? I hate the principle of the Nets’ players looking out into the stands and seeing a sea of Kobe Bryant jerseys.

In addition, have the Nets stopped to think that it’s a terrible message to send to potential free agents? “Sure Joe Johnson, sign on and we’ll promote the hell out of Dwight Howard coming in to destroy you!” Here’s a quote from Nets chief executive Brett Yormark:

"The reality of the situation is that we target the casual sports fan in New Jersey and New York. As much as they like the Nets, they also like the opposing star players. The Match-Up plan enables us to market our players as well as the star players in the league. We’re a young team, the NBA is a league of stars, and we’re not ashamed to say that our fans are coming to watch the opposing star players as much as ours."

Why aren’t they ashamed of that? They should be. Isn’t it a problem when the best you can do for a counterpart for a LeBron jersey is Jarvis Hayes? Is anyone going to wear the Hayes side of that? I mean, is there anyone in America who currently owns a Hayes jersey, period? I think if a kid shows up at school with a Hayes jersey, he’s asking for a pounding from his peers. How about Courtney Lee, who Nets fans haven’t even seen in their uniform, matched up with Bryant in a rematch of their one-sided NBA Finals? He’s No. 6 – maybe they should have marketed it as a throwback Kenyon Martin jersey. Even their two most marketable stars, Harris and Brook Lopez, are overshadowed by brighter stars Dwyane Wade and Dwight Howard, respectively. Look, the idea here is to build up your own team’s identity. I still think it’s unconscionable to completely abandon any pretense that your games are anything but an outpost for LeBron and Kobe to pillage the Meadowlands.

Wouldn’t it have been enough to simply give out jerseys of the Nets? Are five jerseys of your own team not enough of a draw, rather than exterminating brand loyalty and replacing it with an investment in other teams’ players? The idea is to get the younger generation hooked on Nets players, rather than say, Wade, so that they’ll come more than twice a year. Because I’m a generous guy, how about I offer up some free marketing advice? How about: “The Start of Something Big” – and stick Devin and Brook on the posters and billboards? Then call attention to the fact that the Nets are building toward being under the cap for 2010 and signing some big-time talent, but that a couple of key pieces are already on the roster. Then in 2010, you’re all set up for “The Future is Now.” But the Nets need to figure out that putting themselves on a level below their opponents demeans the franchise and kills its value, and that it’s tough to break that cycle once you’ve started that trend. As such, I’ll look forward to next year’s marketing campaign, with jerseys of the loaded 2010 Free Agents – on their respective other teams.

Ignoring the social impact of the recent move, what is the best case scenario here for Vick joining the Eagles on the gridiron?  What is Vick going to do in Philadelphia to make it worth taking on the scrutiny of actually having him?

I can understand why Vick would think this is the best situation. You know the drill: strong management team, solid coach in Andy Reid, established quarterback – all of which takes pressure off Vick. In addition, he has one of the most stable men in the history of the NFL in Tony Dungy as a mentor to keep him on the straight and narrow.

I know what Vick gets out of this. But what do the Eagles get?

First off, they get an angry quarterback. Sure, Donovan McNabb said the right things about encouraging the Eagles to sign Vick. What is he supposed to say? Privately, he hates it. McNabb has an enormous ego and a ton of pride. He wants to be The Man.

Remember when the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb and McNabb called it “shocking” that they’d take a young quarterback to groom? Remember when McNabb was benched this past November and he acted as if Andy Reid had stolen his Chunky Soup? Meanwhile, it only saved their season.

No matter what he says, McNabb does not want Vick there. He dealt with one circus atmosphere with Terrell Owens that turned into a humongous personal embarrassment. Now he has someone even more notorious on his team that plays his position and threatens his alpha male status.

Football-wise, does this even make sense? Vick is going to play quarterback since it’s all he knows. If the Eagles have him on the field in some sort of Wildcat-like formation, that takes McNabb – arguably their best player – off the field. That strikes me as counterproductive.

And who even knows what Vick has left? Sure, he was a dynamic and incredibly talented – albeit very flawed – player during his first go-around, but does that guarantee he’s going to be that good after two years on the shelf? Of course not. In fact, I’d be stunned if he was anything close to what he was before. A month off makes a quarterback rusty. How about two years? In prison? He might be a totally different athlete now, and not in a good way.

You know who else doesn’t know what kind of player Vick is? The Eagles. Oddly, Reid didn’t even work him out. So why go out on this limb without knowing for sure this guy can still play? It’s sort of stupefying.

Also, don’t forget that the West Coast offense requires precision that Vick simply didn’t have during his stay in Atlanta, or that the Eagles were among the favorites to win the NFC even before this disruption.

And then there are the fans, who have completely been overlooked by the Eagles. They’re passionate but very judicious, and they love their stars. As such, they will be very wary of embracing Vick. I’d say virtually all fans would be, to a degree, afraid of what people would think or sticking to their own personal beliefs.

So we know what Vick gets out of this – the perfect environment to try to get his mojo back.

But what do the Eagles get? A whole lot of questions, that’s what.

I always just sort of had this feeling that Arturo Gatti would die young, but it doesn’t make it any less stunning when it actually happens.

Hearing about his death on Saturday was one of those times where you simply don’t know what to do next. He’s been my favorite fighter since high school, when about 15 years ago, I saw him beat Tracy Harris Patterson for his first title.

Gatti was never the most talented boxer, not the most successful. But he was by far the most entertaining. Even after he got with trainer Buddy McGirt and stepped up his fundamentals, Gatti’s defense always took a back seat to his offense; he’d take three punches to connect with one. But his determination and threshold for pain made his fights must-see wars, so much so that I went to three of his fights in Atlantic City, including the final two of his near-legendary wars with Micky Ward.

It’s no wonder people loved him. Gatti was the everyman, with the name and look of a young mafia don, the swagger of a bullfighter and the courage of a firefighter. He was known just as much for his propensity to party as his prowess in the ring. Gatti liked fast cars, fast women, fast punches and fast times. He’d go out to party still bleeding after one of his epic ring wars.

Watching Gatti fight in New Jersey was the boxing equivalent of a Springsteen concert. When AC/DC’s "Thunderstruck" hit and he hit the ring, it was a surreal moment. Though he was a Canada native, the Jersey City resident was as beloved a Garden State sports figure as there was, ranking up there with Brodeur, Simms and Kidd. Living in North Jersey, you heard stories about where Gatti hung out, where he trained — the Ringside pub in Jersey City satisfied both categories. I knew people in my town who were friends of his; one got Gatti to make out an autographed picture to me. A few years later, I got a picture with Gatti that I treasure.

The Ward fights were an opportunity to see two athletes form an indelible bond over the most strenuous of competition. With no titles on the line, the two battled each other relentlessly for 30 rounds, then lay beside each other in hospital beds afterward as friends. Ward retired following the third fight, and then helped train Gatti. To a thunderous ovation, they hugged at the end of their third fight –before the final round. I’d never seen anything like it. Their relationship was something to behold. I was so proud of both of them.

As a result of the Ward trilogy, Gatti blew up big. He became a big draw on TV and in arenas, got some big payouts. He fought Mayweather — a painful one to watch, Gatti was so outclassed that he took a savage beating and for once couldn’t give one back. But he got paid, and everyone could respect that.

As entertaining as Gatti’s fights were, I was glad when his career ended. I didn’t want to see Gatti — who was charming and funny — follow the path of so many others whose brain and speech patterns didn’t work quite right after their career, especially considering his breakneck style. When he lost his final couple of fights and called it quits, I was relieved. It was time for him to stop.

With the drinking, the past drug issues, the women… it was hard to imagine a life outside the ring for Gatti. It simply never seemed that this was someone who was destined to live until 75, 80 years old. Ironic that one of those young, crazy women that Gatti was predisposed to would end his life. There’s so much yet to be answered regarding his passing at just 37 years old, but thank God he didn’t die in the ring. I feared that he would.

The day he died, I happened to drive by Ringside that afternoon. The lot was filled with cars, though they were likely there not to pour out a drink in Gatti’s honor, but for the Ultimate Fighting card that night. Even at Gatti’s main haunts, time simply moves on without him. It’s the way the world works.

But those who watched Gatti fight will always remember his heart. The man’s heart will always be an inspiration, and he leaves an indelible legacy.

Rest in peace, champ.

After my third time at Citi Field (two games and a public workout) on Wednesday, it has become apparent that the first-year ball yard is perfect for the Mets of current vintage. By that I mean, the star of the show is most certainly not the team on the field, which is currently rather unremarkable, but rather the field itself. It’s like PNC Park in Pittsburgh, except it’s not nearly as dire a situation for the Mets.

At least so far. When you see the picture at right and wonder if new Knicks draft picks Toney Douglas and Jordan Hill feel like having a summer job, you know things are not going well. I mean, that pitch Hill is throwing probably had a better chance of finding the plate than many that Oliver Perez (seven walks) offered up on Wednesday.

There is zero question that at least at this point, the on-field product takes a back seat to the park experience. And to be certain, it’s great for fans. It’s a perfect place to simply hang with friends, drink a beer and sort-of watch a game.

If you’re a baseball traditionalist who scores a game by hand — probably while wearing a derby hat and smoking a cigar — this park was not designed for you. What they had in mind was a place where you can wait on a line for a “Shake Shack” hamburger while watching the game on a screen on the back of the scoreboard. A place where you can get sushi, if you’re so inclined. (I usually am, but not at a ballgame) A place where you can frequent a center-field beer garden — which, despite the flowery name, is indistinguishable from any other beer vendor.

If you simply want to sit and pay close attention to a baseball game, well, nobody’s stopping you. It’s just that in the back of your mind, you know they didn’t make the park for you.

Before I start to sound like the grizzled curmudgeon yelling, “Get off my lawn!” — it’s probably too late for that — I’ll point out that the ballpark is aesthetically beautiful. (My good friend who came to the game, a die-hard Yankees fan, glumly had to admit that Citi is a  nicer stadium than the Yankees’ new Ode to Excess) I love the brick everywhere and the enormous old-style Pepsi sign up on the “Pepsi Porch,” which is where my actual seats were. The Jackie Robinson Rotunda is of course a nice touch.

A Mets win is a nice touch too, sends the crowd home happy. Usually I don’t see much I haven’t seen before, but Daniel Murphy’s Rafer Alston impression qualifies. And any time you get to hear Sandungueoso, it’s a good night in Queens.

But after every trip to Citi Field, a part of me just ends up thinking about Shea Stadium — where occasionally, a Mets player would hit a home run.

Was Shea as visually appealing as Citi Field is? Of course not. Was the food as good? No, it was your standard hot dog fare (heaven forbid).

• But I saw my first baseball game at Shea against the Expos back in September 1989 — the 23rd, to be exact — when my uncle, who passed away three years later, slipped an usher some money to upgrade us from mezzanine to loge. It was ski hat night, appropriate for the climate, and the last great Mets night for Gary Carter, who had five RBIs.

• Then there was my second game in 1990, the one time I saw the great Darryl Strawberry hit live. Frank Viola, who I adored, won his 19th.

• Fast-forward a few years, to when Mike Piazza helped the City heal after 9/11. Greatest live sporting event I’ve been to.

• My lone playoff game, when Beltran hit it off the scoreboard in Game 1 of the 2006 NLCS, and of course, Darryl threw out the first pitch.

Citi Field is a nice place to get some good food — while a baseball game is going on. But Shea had a definitive identity, and of course, held lots of memories for lots of people. Any time a new stadium replaces an old, beloved entity, this is always going to be an issue.

Is Citi Field progress? Probably.

But all the Shake Shacks in the world won’t change that the new Mets park has a lot of catching up to do.

ESPN is reporting that in an effort to lure Trevor Ariza to the Cavs, LeBron James told him he’d stay with the Cavaliers past this coming year. Ariza, like me, was not convinced, and will likely sign with Houston, I hear to be closer to his kid, who lives in Los Angeles, California. (Which begs the question… isn’t Los Angeles even closer to Los Angeles?) And also, he says, because of the opportunity to grow as a player, which he apparently can’t do on the title-contending Lakers or Cavs.

Sidebar: When did Trevor Ariza turn into Scottie Pippen? I actually like Ariza, I know he plays some D, and I know he had a very nice playoff run for the Lakers. But how about we see him score nine points a game before someone gives him $33 million, as the Rockets are? Because he’s topped out at 8.9. At least he’s done that twice.

Regardless, I find it hard to believe that LeBron would throw away his opportunity to have the eyes of the sports world exclusively on him next year to get Trevor Ariza. Maybe Ben Gordon, but not Ariza, no matter how much he enjoyed torching him for 50 in high school. Even if he has no intentions of leaving Cleveland — and honestly, who knows what his intentions are? — I can’t see him being that desperate as to tell Ariza that he’s not going anywhere as a sales pitch. I’m not saying it didn’t happen, it just seems fishy.

Of course, he might not have expected this information to get out via some "source." In which case, it kind of makes this commercial teasing the massive ensuing marketing campaign ring a little hollow. LeBron James wants to be a Global Icon. (His words, not mine.) So why would he risk it getting out that the upcoming 2010 sweepstakes, in which he’d be the most coveted free agent since some guy named Michael Jordan? Of course, the Knicks desperately hope things will go different with LeBron than they did with Jordan.

The point is, if LeBron really said this, and meant it, it’s a surprising misstep for an extremely savvy and image-conscious budding captain of industry. I’m a little surprised he’s shown his cards, if that truly is what he’s done here, but it’s also sending a message to the Cavs loud and clear: "We’re not good enough." If it’s that important to him to get Trevor Ariza, I wouldn’t expect him to want to stay there if he doesn’t feel that their chances have improved.

In summation, I think what you can read into this is that if LeBron feels he has a championship-caliber team around him at the end of next season, a team with a future, he probably wants to stay there. But if he’s perceiving that GM Danny Ferry can’t get the job done, you’re going to be seeing him at Marquee starting July 2010.

**UPDATE**

Predictably, LeBron’s people are now denying that he had a conversation with Ariza. So if Ariza’s people lied — which I’m not sure they did — it’d be to pump up his value and reputation by making it seem like LeBron was recruiting him. Regardless of whether its true, that would be why they leaked it. It’s not a shock that LeBron is denying it for the reasons I detailed above, that he wouldn’t want to cut out the legs from under his upcoming major media blitz.

Maybe he truly does want to stay there, maybe he wants to keep his options open. Maybe he just wants people to think he’s keeping his options open. Nobody really knows. My guess is he’s going to stay there, but there really is no way to know for sure right now.

You always see articles grading each team’s draft picks immediately after the event ends. Of course, nobody really knows how good these guys are going to be until a few years from now, so these articles are mostly nonsense. I guarantee if you look hard enough, you’ll find a bunch of people who condemned the Mavs for getting Dirk Nowitzki for Tractor Traylor in a draft-day deal because they saw a European and thought soft. Similarly, there were articles exalting the Wizards for drafting the exciting potential of Kwame Brown.

The point is, it’s impossible to tell in most cases which players are the real deal and which ones are draft day pretenders. What if Blake Griffin somehow stinks? Are the Clippers still winners? He probably won’t stink, but did anyone expect Joe Smith to have a mediocre career? That said, there are some cases where we can look beyond an individually drafted player to make an educated guess on whether particular moves created winning or losing scenarios. Here are a few:

Winner: Spurs — Pretty safe bet here. Even if Dejuan Blair’s knees fall apart like "Heroes" after the first season, the trade for Richard Jefferson is a necessary reinvention for a very stale team. With Duncan, Parker, Jefferson and Ginobili on the floor at one time… well, they still probably won’t be better than the Lakers, but they’re better than they were before.

Loser: Syracuse early entrants — Paul Harris and Eric Devendorf came out with no buzz and predictably didn’t get taken. Harris was an underwhelming and disappointing college player, while Eric Devendorf was a poor man’s Gerry McNamara, except nobody likes him. If Dionte Christmas didn’t get drafted… these guys had no shot.

Winner: Shaq — He went from a Suns team on the way down to playing with LeBron. I don’t know if they get a championship out of it, but if he stays healthy, Shaq should go 20-10 easy and may be due one last All-Star berth with the King’s sweet passes finding him.

Loser: Magic — Losing Hedo and adding Vince Carter is a net loss to me. The versatile Turkoglu, who’s as good as gone, was flawless for this team and at this stage in the game is probably a better player than Vince overall. Vince needs his shots, needs to be the man. On a team with three other All-Star caliber players who are all good-to-great offensive players, will Vince start pouting? I get the point, it’s a proactive move anticipating that Turkoglu was going to bolt, but they should have just anted up to keep him. Plus, they lost Courtney Lee. Don’t sleep on Lee. Are they still Finals candidates? Sure. Would they be more so if they still had Turkoglu instead of Carter? Absolutely.

Winner: Jonny Flynn — Flynn’s a tough kid, got some skills, definitely well conditioned. But there’s no guarantee he’s better than any of the other point guards in this draft. Would you really take Flynn over Ty Lawson or Eric Maynor? Why? It was a deep draft in point guards for sure, but I think that means that there were a lot of point guards all on a similar level. Flynn was one of those, and somehow he killed it in workouts and worked his way to the No. 6 pick. Meanwhile, Patty Mills goes 55th.

Loser: Brandon Jennings and his choice in friends — First off, there’s nothing hypothetically wrong with the guy being friends with Joe Budden, who’s a respectable rapper from Jersey with a girlfriend who gets more buzz than he does. (Google her — that said, Slaughterhouse coming this summer, mark it down) But it seems like all Budden does when they talk is put Jennings down, to which Jennings responds by blasting Ramon Sessions, Chris Duhon, and particularly Ricky Rubio, which he has a tendency to do. Now Jennings didn’t know Budden would stream the entire conversation off his Web site — with friends like these, right? — but either way, you have to be responsible for the things you say. Jennings had better hope he’s good, because he’ll have to rely on himself an awful lot when he finds out he didn’t make any friends on his own team, or around the league.

Winner: Mike Dunleavy — Sometimes, good things happen to bad coaches/executives. Griffin is the one sure thing in the draft and is sorely needed by a franchise that hasn’t had a lot of good things happen to them. That said, they’re still the Clippers. You have to think they’ll botch it. And Griffin would have likely wanted to go anywhere else.

Loser: New Wolves mastermind David Kahn — So he traded Mike Miller and Randy Foye — two useful players — for the No. 5 pick, and took Ricky Rubio, who’d rather go back to Europe than live in the Minnesota tundra. Even if he took him because he had the most value at that spot, wouldn’t he have been better off just drafting a useable player at that spot? If Kahn truly wants to wait for Rubio, that’ll be a long two years. And the worst part of this whole thing is that the last thing you want to do when taking over is remove all confidence from your fan base that you truly know what you’re doing. Kahn will have his work cut out for him to change that.

Winner: TruthBegins.com NBA Draft Preview, picks 1-12 — We hit 8 of the first 12 here on the site and were flying high. I don’t think anyone else had Jennings going to the Bucks, but the way things work out, if you hit a few picks in a row, it’s like dominoes falling down.

Loser: TruthBegins.com NBA Draft Preview, picks 13-30 — …but if you miss a few picks in a row, you lose those guys for later in the draft and it mounts on you. The only pick we hit after No. 12 was Jeff Teague to the Hawks at No. 19, though we missed by one pick on Suns/Earl Clark and Kings/Omri Casspi. Still, 9 out of 30 is probably on the high end for an unpredictable (read: weak) draft. Next year, we’re aiming for at least 12.

Here’s a mock for one of the weakest drafts in years. It’s essentially a three-player draft — or a one-player draft, if you don’t think that Hasheem Thabeet and Ricky Rubio are for real, and one could make a very convincing case that neither is. The draft is loaded with point guards, and none of them are guaranteed to be that much better than the guys currently starting in the league. Proof positive is Stephen Curry, who is highly coveted, and yet is no sure bet. Jonny Flynn might go No. 4 tonight. No. 4 last year was Russell Westbrook, head and shoulders above him. No. 4 in 2003 was Chris Bosh. That said, it might end up being better than the draft two years ago, so at least that’s something. Away we go:

1. Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF Oklahoma – For the record, I’m not convinced Griffin will be a great NBA player, at least not right away. Witness two big forwards’ final years in college:

Player 1: 22.7 PPG, 14.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 65% FG, 59% FT
Player 2: 26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 53% FG, 77% FT

Player 1 is Griffin. Player 2 is K-State’s Michael Beasley, who couldn’t hold down a starting job with the Heat and averaged about 14 and 5. Beasley had some big games in the playoffs – and some very small games – and will almost definitely round into a solid player. But the Clippers aren’t getting Tim Duncan – i.e. an instant impact – here. And coming to that team, with their horrendous owner, is not the best environment in which to succeed. Blake’s going to be a good player, but this isn’t like getting the No. 1 pick and drafting LeBron.

2. Grizzlies: Hasheem Thabeet, C Connecticut – I’m just not sure what kind of player you think you’re getting here if you take him. Is he going to score? Almost definitely not. So you’re hoping for Dikembe Mutombo, but you might get Theo Ratliff, or worse, Michael Olowokandi. If Greg Oden is having the trouble he is, how will Thabeet do? Plus, he didn’t want to work out for them, or for anyone, and likely doesn’t want to play in Memphis. This smells like a trade with Rubio the main prize.

3. Thunder: Ricky Rubio, PG Spain – I don’t know why people don’t like Rubio. He thrived in the Olympics (watch in HQ, but mute Franz Ferdinand), and he’s young enough that he could end up developing into the best-case scenario, Steve Nash. Or he could be Beno Udrih, which is a worst case. Regardless, I think there’s a very good chance he turns into a very productive player, he’s used to playing against top competition and he’s marketable. If the Thunder end up with him, they wait until Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are ready to win, and off they go. But I suspect their interest in him is an attempt to generate a trade, most likely with Minnesota, where they’d move down and take Harden, probably a better fit.

4. Kings: Tyreke Evans, PG Memphis – Everyone’s saying that the Kings love Jonny Flynn, but Evans was physically superior in their workout. Personally, I think Evans is going to be a significant NBA player despite not being a true point guard. One need only look at what he did in the tournament to know that he’s a true talent and a future leader. I like him a lot more than Flynn.

5. Wolves: Johnny Flynn, PG Syracuse –The Wolves have let it float that they like Flynn. I’ll take them at their word and figure that they’re going to reload their backcourt, but it’s hard to see them having traded up for Flynn. I think they were banking on either Evans or Rubio. That said, Flynn’s stock has soared, he showed his toughness and talent in the Big East Tournament, and he reasonably could be the pick here. Or, they could go with Curry, who most think is a better player, though not a true point guard.

6. Wolves: James Harden, SG Arizona State – In a draft loaded with point guards, he’s the best swingman. Since the Wolves gutted their backcourt to get these two picks, here’s saying they reload if they end up having to stay here. Athletically, he’s unimpressive, but he knows how to play. They obviously still want to attempt to move up for Rubio, though, so a lot can change.

7. Warriors: Jordan Hill, PF/C Arizona – This team sorely needs a point guard, unless they’re sold on Monta Ellis at the position, which I doubt they are. Hill is a lot like Anthony Randolph, who Don Nelson soured on for no apparent reason as he’s wont to do. No matter – after watching Channing Frye flame out, I wasn’t high on Hill, but I hear he’s killing it in workouts. If he doesn’t go here, the Knicks would almost certainly take him at No. 8. Drafting him would allow them to trade a power forward for a point guard as well. Just because they need a point guard doesn’t mean they draft one.

8. Knicks: Stephen Curry, PG Syracuse – And the Knicks get their man. I do think he’s almost a lock to go before this, but I’m having trouble figuring out where someone would take him. I like Curry a lot, I’m just not sure if he’s going to translate on the next level. He’s a good shooter, can handle and pass, and he has experience leading a team. But he has a frail body. Regardless, there are a lot of teams that like him, his rise has been meteoric and he’ll probably be solid. I do believe that the Knicks will end up with him by hook or by crook – even if they have to trade. If Curry, Evans and Hill are all gone, they probably don’t get Flynn, opting for Gerald Henderson.

9. Raptors: Demar DeRozan, G/F USC – Provides athleticism and toughness the Raps sorely need, with Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon providing none. Personally, though he’s a project, I feel he’s a pretty good bet to do something at some point.

10. Bucks: Brandon Jennings, PG, Italy – I don’t like this guy at all in terms of personality. And this pick would definitely be Flynn if around, but he could go as early as No. 4 to the Kings. Jennings called out Rubio and basically said he was a fraud. What the hell has Jennings ever done? Rubio only held his own against Chris Paul and Jason Kidd in the Olympics. You’re looking at Stephon Marbury Version 2. However, some say that in a few years, his talent could be off the charts. Time will tell.

11. Nets: Terrence Williams, SF, Louisville – Williams seems like a Richard Jefferson type. He won’t go lower than No. 12 to the Bobcats, but would fit in well with a young nucleus of Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and, well, Vince Carter (who’s not so young and whom I expect to be traded at some point this season).

12. Bobcats: Gerald Henderson, SG, Duke – I’m not sure he’s ready to step in and be a big star right away, but with Raja Bell injury-prone as usual, they need to build up that position. And Henderson is a potential star – many compare him to Dahntay Jones, but he’s a lot more skilled than Jones while being just as explosive. Michael Jordan would get a kick out of taking a Duke guy, especially one who has the athletic gifts he values.

13. Pacers: Jrue Holiday, PG, UCLA – I was surprised that he wasn’t better in college, but the tools are there. The only problem is that you’re drafting a player that averaged under 9 PPG in college. No matter, he’s a big lead guard who plays good defense, and I think he could be good in time – not right away. Definitely still a possibility for the Knicks, who have considered him extensively.

14. Suns: James Johnson, PF, Wake Forest – Could go as high as No. 9, to the Raptors. If Toronto didn’t have such a need at the wing, I’d say he would just go there. If Jennings is there, the Suns probably take him as a potential successor to Nash. Could there be a bigger character dropoff? I like Johnson as a player but I’m unclear as to whether he has NBA athleticism, though his handle is good. Earl Clark and Austin Daye are possibilities – they’re all being considered right around this range.

15. Pistons: Earl Clark, PF, Louisville – Is it any wonder Louisville was as good as it was this season, with Clark and Williams? Clark could be a player in the Tayshaun Prince mold in terms of versatility and shooting ability. Consider me a fan.

16. Bulls: B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State – If Henderson slips, he’s probably too talented to pass on. But it’s unlikely he gets past the Nets and Bobcats. Lots of rumors about Mullens having a promise at this pick, from either the Bulls or someone trading here. Nothing I dislike more than a project center, with the exception of Andrew Bynum, who I adored coming out of high school. They could also look at DeJuan Blair here.

17. 76ers: Tywon Lawson, PG, UNC – Andre Miller is as good as gone. The only thing that would prevent this pick would be Lawson going before this, as a lot of teams are high on him. It’s weird, he doesn’t seem to have an NBA body, but he’s fast and has killer instinct. Probably the most ready-made point guard in the draft.

18. Wolves: Sam Young, SF, Pitt – Most have him going later, but they need a versatile small forward type to fill in after dealing Mike Miller, and presumably they’ve already addressed their backcourt. Athletically, I’ve never been impressed with him, but he’s probably going to be at least a solid player on the next level.

19. Hawks: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest – A few years back, they passed on a speedy Wake Forest point guard – Chris Paul – to pick Marvin Williams. Let’s not make the same mistake, huh guys? Mike Bibby isn’t getting any younger.

20. Jazz: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pitt – Anyone who saw him decimate Hasheem Thabeet knows he gets the most out of his physical attributes. Personally, I think he’s too slow and his knees scare me, but there’s no question he has the potential to be a beast.

21. Hornets: Tyler Hansbrough, PF, Hornets – I get the feeling they’d prefer Blair, since he’s tougher, but anyone who saw Hansbrough stalk around with his bloody nose after Henderson whacked him in the face knows he’s got toughness. The only question here is whether he can mount an offensive game in the pros with sketchy athleticism, but he has a motor and can rebound with the best of them. This is probably about his floor, but his ceiling is much higher in this draft.

22. Blazers: Omri Casspi, SF, Israel – They moved up two spots, apparently to take this guy, who the Kings had supposedly locked in on. With a loaded roster, you probably won’t see him for a while.

23. Kings: Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga – Excellent shooter for his size, but very unpolished. The Kings are rebuilding anyway, so why not get him and wait it out? Reminds me of Boris Diaw, not a bad thing.

24. Mavericks: Eric Maynor, PG VCU – Seems to be their major need with Kidd ancient. There’s no guarantee that any of the guards ahead of Maynor – Flynn, Holiday, etc. – will be any better than he’ll be.

25. Thunder: DeMarre Carroll, PF Missouri – The Thunder have a lot of good things about them, but they could use some fresh blood down low.

26. Bulls: Chase Budinger, G Arizona – I think I’m a bigger fan of this guy than most, but I think he’s a winner and would be good to have on any potential playoff team.

27. Grizzlies: Taj Gibson, F USC – Overshadowed by Demar DeRozan, but could round into a decent player.

28. Knicks: Danny Green, SG UNC – All indications are that the Knicks are going to buy this pick, in which case I think they go with the athletic Green, who should pray that he ends up playing in this system.

29. Lakers: Nick Calathes, PG Florida – He’s already overseas, so they’d save money and be able to bring him in later on, when Derek Fisher is closer to retirement.

30. Cavaliers: Darren Collison, PG UCLA – After a rough postseason for Mo Wiliams, the Cavs could get this underrated guard to help fill in some depth.