TruthBegins

We are pleased to report that Part I of the Duke Pulse survey was very well-received.  As indicated earlier, the purpose of this survey is to capture point-in-time snapshots of fan perspectives throughout the season.  Let’s jump into the results of Part I!

Duke Pulse respondents are anticipating a successful season with ALL respondents predicting between 25-34 wins, culminating in a 2, 3, or 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Interestingly, no one predicted more than 34 wins or a #1 seed in the NCAAT.

Additionally, no one felt that Duke is currently the best positioned team to win it all.  Respondents currently overwhelmingly favor the Kansas Jayhawks to win the title, with John Wall and the Kentucky Wildcats a distant second.

While no one believes Duke is best-positioned to take the championship, many respondents do feel Kyle Singler is in a great position to earn 1st Team All-American honors.

Additionally, survey respondents feel pretty confident about the team’s ability to takedown UNC at least once this year, but only half think the team has what it takes to win the ACC regular season.  That said, a bit over half are anticipating an ACC Tournament championship.  In the NCAAs, respondents are expecting Duke to build upon their recent tournament experiences in order to move beyond the Sweet 16.

And now onto a particularly timely question with Harrison Barnes’s highly anticipating college decision on Friday looming large in everyone’s mind.  How confident are respondents in Duke’s ability to land the following recruits?  Regarding Barnes, 69% feel that Duke will indeed sign the overall #1 prospect in the country – let’s keep our fingers crossed…

Looking forward even further, we asked survey participants to estimate the likelihood for the below players to declare for the NBA draft following the 2009-2010 season.  Interestingly, fans are just as confident that Kyle Singler will leave Duke as they are that Harrison Barnes will matriculate.  That said, other than Singler, respondents seem assured that Duke will retain the bulk of its non-graduating roster next season.

Stay tuned for future editions of the The Duke Pulse survey throughout the season.  As more results come in, it will be increasingly interesting to see how real-world events, namely on-the-court performance and off-the-court recruiting ruminations, impact respondent predictions.

Welcome to a new analysis series called “The Duke Pulse.” This series will strive to trend fan sentiments throughout the Duke basketball season via regular polling of the fan base. Fresh off the successful recruitment of Kyrie Irving and with only one more preseason game remaining on the docket, now is a great time to baseline fan sentiments as the season tipoff approaches.  Please click on the image below to open a new window and take our first Duke Pulse survey!

Be sure to fully complete the survey.  Results will be summarized and posted periodically throughout the season as interesting trends emerge. Note that individual responses will not be made public without prior consent.

For better or for worse, the amount of access fans have has truly changed in big-time college basketball recruiting, and social media is a major reason why. In the past, high school stars were relatively shadowy figures. We rarely got to see them play, much less know very much about them before they showed up to be big little men on campus as freshmen.

But now? We’ve seen them play on YouTube, though it’s tough to draw conclusions since we likely only see the best the kid has, set to lousy hip-hop. We’ve read fervently on Twitter as they post important facts about their lives, like what cereal they prefer, when they’re studying for biology tests, and what songs they think are most noteworthy. We watch them make off-color jokes on a live stream and egg them on with a comment board. As always, progress is a double-edged sword. On the upside, it is empowering to be able to know ever more about the 16-year-old saviors of our favorite college basketball teams.

But on the downside, while the Lunatic Fringe formerly had to wait until the kid was out on the floor to let them know what they think of their mother and sister, they now have nearly direct access from adolescence. The meteoric rise of Twitter has given everyone with a computer and a fair amount of vitriol the ability to directly address young players who choose to use the 140-character juggernaut. With Facebook, they have room to be even more explicit. In the past, rabid – literally – fans had to resort to team message boards to spout their unhealthy disapproval of, well, everything. Unless recruits had a morbid fascination that I think only applies to the fans themselves, they didn’t subject themselves to reading it. But now you have situations such as that of Mr. Kyrie Irving, a top-flight point guard from New Jersey by way of St. Patrick’s in Elizabeth, who alienated tons of dozens of fans for the sole reason that he didn’t want to matriculate at their schools. Irving committed to Duke University on Thursday and is regarded as potentially the school’s best point guard prospect ever, very high praise indeed.  Never mind that Irving was limited to just one school and went with the one where he felt most comfortable. Picking a situation that didn’t correspond with the best interests of certain passionate Kentucky and Indiana fans made for a very distasteful backlash.

Irving runs a Twitter account which was followed by around 3,000 people, with likely most of them supporters of the schools which were recruiting him. I think he enjoyed the attention that he was getting – what high school kid wouldn’t? – and he almost certainly benefited in the selection process from hearing the selling points from fans of the schools he considered. He was also able to communicate with potential future teammates. But he saw the ugly side when he removed Indiana from his short list – leading him to respond… twice – and then when he “spurned” Kentucky to pick Duke. At both times, he was subjected to being called names that would make anyone’s mother blush. And they were able to send them directly to Irving with no filters to speak of. Irving, for his own part, used Twitter to help make his day in the sun a little brighter. From all accounts, he was likely certain he would attend Duke after his official visit several weeks ago. But he indicated that he would use Twitter to announce his choice, drumming up copious followers. He used the site to detail his subsequent official visits and demonstrate what appears to be a fantastic work ethic. He eventually chose to announce his destination with a news conference on ESPNU, which is fine – his hard work dictated that as a reward. Reports surfaced from time to time that called him a lock for Duke – correctly – and Irving actually took back his ability to make the announcement on his own by denouncing on Twitter that he had committed to Duke. Semantics dictate that Kyrie is technically accurate true, as he officially didn’t commit until his ESPNU presser.

So that’s the advantage. Twitter afforded the young man the ability to attract attention that he normally would not have been able to garner, and let him control his own announcement. In the past, a couple dozen hardcore aficionados would have heard of him. Now? At least 3,000, and then however many more watched his commitment conference. And make no mistake, every time he said something on his site, people overanalyzed it to death. The disadvantage is the unfettered access that allowed fans to voice their displeasure directly to him in quite colorful terms, even leading him at times to attempt to provide a lesson in morals to them. To Irving’s credit, he did not seem that adversely affected by the interaction. Now I can’t determine whether the positives of having the forum to self-promote outweighs the perils of letting idiots have a crack at you. But there’s no looking back. The days of word of mouth, and seeing a recruit for the first time when he steps on campus, are over. And though the enhanced access we experience is all in the name of progress, one has to think that just maybe, we were better off in a simpler time when we didn’t have the power to practically reach out and touch a recruit. Was it perhaps more satisfying learning about a player once he actually gets to campus? It just might turn out to be true that knowing everything isn’t the best thing.

8pm, October 16th, 2009.  What a spectacle!  Cameron was rocking to kick-off the official start of the Duke Blue Devils college basketball season.

Traditionally, Duke has not often participated in the annual brouhaha formerly known as Midnight Madness; however, this year marks a new tune for the program as Duke has decided to enter the yearly fray with its own customized kickoff celebration called Countdown to Craziness.

Overall, the staff did a wonderful job putting together a fun-filled event.  Highlights from the night included the annual Blue-White game featuring two special Duke legends — Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley — as guest coaches, theatrical player introductions by legendary announcer Michael Buffer, a high-flying dunk contest, and performances from the Duke University Improv.

Visit www.countdowntocraziness.com for a full video recap of the night’s festivities!

With the NBA departure of Gerald Henderson and the unexpected transfer of Elliot Williams to Memphis, Duke was staring into a backcourt abyss with only two recruited guards, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, remaining on the roster for the upcoming season. While both players are undoubtedly talented, having only two legitimate options to play two positions is certainly an undesirable position for any program — surely one of the players will need a rest of at some point in the season!

Enter Andre Dawkins.

Dawkins is an acclaimed 5-star recruit that had already committed to Duke, expecting to matriculate for the 2010-2011 season. However, with a plethora of minutes available at the guard position, Andre Dawkins finds himself in position to capitalize on having already fulfilled his high school graduation recruitments.

This is an amazing turn of events for the Devils in the upcoming season.  While Duke is by no means deep in the backcourt now, the addition of a first-rate player at the guard position will go a long ways towards solidifying the backcourt rotation and helping Scheyer’s prognostications come true.

Admittedly, I was somewhat apprehensive to hear the news that Coach K elected to double down on his past Olympic success and will be returning to lead Team USA in the upcoming 2012 Games.  It’s no secret that Duke has underperformed (in relation to Duke standards only as nearly every other NCAA team would trade Duke’s perceived lack of success for their own results) over the last couple of seasons, and many people attribute the slump to K’s alleged lack of focus on Duke basketball as he guides Team USA to Olympic glory. Personally, I was not ready to accept that K’s Olympics duties were the culprit for Duke’s decline, but I wasn’t willing to rule it out either. Clearly, this situation required further research to reach a definitive conclusion, and I was chomping at the bit to review the historical data and write this article in order to finally put this issue to rest – one way or the other!

And then Al Featherston trumped me!  And frankly, I’m ecstatic that he did.  I couldn’t have produced a finer, more-researched article.  If you have any questions regarding the impact of the Olympics on Coach K and Duke basketball, this is the definitive article that you MUST READ: Featherston on Coach K, Team USA and Recruiting

Today, the recently-rumored E-Will transfer rumor officially bore out as Duke announced that Elliot Williams will indeed transfer due to family health reasons.  First and foremost, those here at TruthBegins.com want to wish Elliot and his family the absolute best of fortune in these trying times.  Elliot is currently dealing with undeniably difficult circumstances within his family, and our heartfelt condolences go out to them.  Additionally, we would like to thank Elliot for his year at Duke, and in particular, for his remarkable perseverance last season that reminded all Duke fans that hard work and dedication do pay off, as exemplified by Elliot’s ascension from minor role player to a contributing starter towards the end of the season.  We will continue to follow Elliot’s career and we expect his star will continue to shine.

Secondly, and I do mean secondly, we are all left to wonder how this transfer will impact the Duke team next season.  There is no doubt that struggles loom on the horizon as a team that was already woefully thin in the backcourt just lost its best athlete.  With only two recruited players returning at the guard position, Duke will be forced to investigate creative, perhaps very creative, contingency planning.  It will be extremely interesting to see how K molds the team strategy in the coming months to offset a lack of guard depth, but in the meantime, let’s all keep our fingers crossed that the ultimate contingency comes to fruition – a healthy Nolan ‘The Escalade’ Smith explodes onto the scene next season and emerges as Duke’s 2nd best (and arguably most important) player, behind Kyle Singler.

Nolan, the grandest of opportunities awaits you. Do work.

Based on how often each phrase is Google’d, John Wall is currently more popular than Duke Basketball, Shane Battier, and yes… sliced bread.

Calling all hoops fans!  Keep an eye out for the upcoming release of the new movie The Street Stops Here, featuring Bob Hurley’s life-long struggle to keep the dream of St. Anthony’s alive by inspiring inner-city youth to succeed despite their difficult surroundings.

Bob Hurley, Sr., the father of Duke’s own Bobby Hurley, is as legendary for his off-the-court triumphs as he is for his on-the-court success.  His three National Championships, 23 State Championships, and 957 victories pale in comparison to the fact that in his 36 years of coaching the poorest kids that Jersey City has to offer, only two (TWO in THRITY-SIX years!) did not pursue a college education.  Bob Hurley is true world example of doing things “the right way.”

Click The Street Stops Here to check out their website and view the movie trailer!

Also, I highly recommend reading Adrian Wojnarowski’s book The Miracle of St. Anthony.  It is an absolutely captivating story of Bob Hurley’s 2003 season at St. Anthony’s as he strives to turn his “most dysfunctional group” ever into champions on the court, and more importantly, men off it.

Those of you in touch with the Cameron Crazie scene will recall a variation of this hip-hop inspired post title echoing through Cameron Indoor to salute highlight plays from Duke’s last one-and-done star, Luol Deng.  Today, Duke fans find themselves in pursuit of John Wall, another one-and-done phenom, but this chase has an unfamiliar feel.

See, we fans didn’t know that Luol Deng was a one-and-done upon arrival, and many thought he would be around for several years.  Despite Luol’s lofty high-school rankings (it’s often forgotten that Luol was the #2-ranked recruit in his class, behind some guy named Lebron – I wonder what ever happened to him?), the general fan sentiment was that Luol would be on campus for multiple seasons.  In the years since Luol’s 2004 campaign, Duke has recruited, but not landed, several other likely one-and-dones: Shaun Livingston, Kris Humphries, and Brandan Wright spring to mind.  Still, these players were not thought of as definitive one-year guys despite one completely forgoing college altogether to leap through the NBA early entry window and the others sticking around for just one season.  The difference may be subtle, but Duke fans anticipated at least one year from these type of players, not just one year.

Enter John Wall.

There is little doubt that John Wall will be spending the summer of 2010 holding exclusive workouts for lottery-bound NBA teams, and some Duke fans are quick to recall that the last time Lil’ Jon was heard in Cameron was also the last time Duke was seen in the Final Four.  Furthermore, many fans contend that Duke, and specifically Coach K, has adapted their recruiting strategy (in their minds, finally!) to go after the super-athletes falling into today’s one-and-done category.  While there is no doubt that Duke, and specifically Coach K, did evolve their strategy, I counter that the big bang moment occurred several years ago with Luol.  While we fans may not have expected his early departure, I have to think the coaching staff anticipated the jump.  In my opinion, Duke’s recruitment of immediately NBA-bound players like Livingston and other one-and-dones like Humphries and Wright is further evidence that the coaching staff actually adapted their style years ago, but we fans are just now catching wind of it due to the seeming certainty of John Wall’s limited college tenure.

Now, combine the unfamiliar feel of K’s “new” recruiting approach with Wall’s seemingly never-ending college selection process (with more plot twists than Fox’s 24), and you start to get a sense of the uncertain waters in which Duke fans now tread.  Compound this with yesterday’s announcement that Gerald Henderson has hired an agent, leaving Duke with a PAPER-THIN (we’re talking Ryan Kelly thin!) 3-guard rotation in the backcourt, and the sense of urgency fans have toward landing this particular #1-ranked point-guard becomes clearer.  Further aggravate the situation with Eric Bledsoe, Duke’s rumored back-up plan to John Wall, committing to Kentucky, sprinkle in a recent breaking-and-entering citation on top of Wall’s already questionable past, and stir this concoction to a boil with a continually rumored, yet never materializing, pending announcement from Wall of a three-to-four school short-list that suddenly might include arch-nemesis North Carolina… Ka-Boom!!

Personally, I will be shocked if John Wall ultimately winds up somewhere other than Kentucky or Duke, despite swirling rumors that UNC, once labeled by John Wall himself as his “dream” school, will try to reinsert themselves into the recruitment process – I just do not see Wall’s handlers letting that happen.  Also, I want to believe that Bledsoe’s commitment to Kentucky is a good sign for Duke, but realistically, it’s a non-factor for Wall as he will get starter’s minutes wherever he goes.  And from what I have read of the B&E citation, it is a non-issue – no-doubt a very stupid decision on his part, but considering the mitigating circumstances (no forced entry, no damage, no stolen goods) this likely fades from consciousness as quickly as any common-sounding legally-equivalent misdemeanor.

Soooo… we’re back to where we’d all prefer to be: basketball.  Does Gerald’s decision to leave improve Duke’s chances?  Common sense dictates that John Wall would be enticed by the possibility of appearing on SportsCenter twice a week throwing alley-oops to Gerald, but considering that Duke only recently entered the John Wall sweepstakes, I have to think John Wall was already privy to the knowledge that Gerald was gone.  This leads me to conclude that John still wants to be on SportsCenter twice a week, but he’s okay being featured in dunks of his own.

The bottom line is that John Wall is facing a difficult, and tremendously important, life-altering decision, and I would not be surprised if he takes all the time available to him to reach an informed conclusion.  And why shouldn’t he?  Wouldn’t you encourage your son or daughter to take all the time possible to fully evaluate their options?  My advice for the interim: if roller coasters are your thing, keep your eyes on Wall’s daily twists and turns, but do not forget to enjoy the broader scenery in the Duke window.