TruthBegins

I started this post Friday night / Saturday morning after the Lakers took out the Rockets 108-94 in Game 3.  After watching the Magic take a 2-1 series lead earlier in the night, and watching LeBron continue to dominate the day before, I pretty much saw everything I needed to put my predictions in print.

However, for the sake of journalistic integrity, I decided not to post this article until I also saw Game 3 of the Nuggets-Mavericks series.  Well, waiting one more day took a lot of the suspense out of these predictions!

In that one day, the playoff picture became much clearer in two ways:

1. Yao Ming broke his left foot and is out for the remainder of the playoffs
2. The NBA refs missed the Mavs “foul-to-give” prior to Melo’s game-clinching 3-pointer

Both series are now over.

When Tracy McGrady went down earlier this season, Houston completely restructured their offense to flow through Yao, and the center flourished in his expanded role.  Without Yao and T-Mac, the Rockets simply do not have the offensive firepower to stay with the Lakers.  As much as I love Shane Battier and the Rockets, and I was really REALLY looking forward to an epic 6/7-game series featuring the Kobe-Shane offense-defense battle, this series is now finished.  The Rockets might be able to ride home court emotion to a win today, but it is far more likely that their Game 1 victory becomes the Rockets last win this season.

The Mavs showed great potential in their opening round dismantling of the Spurs, and I was fully expecting the Mavs to make the Nuggets series competitive yesterday.  And they did, until the waning seconds of Game 3.  In fairness, this loss can’t be pinned on the refs.  If Antoine Wright correctly wraps up Carmelo with his arms, as all players are taught to do in foul-to-give situations, then the refs are a non-story today.  Furthermore, even if the refs called the foul-to-give, the Nuggets would still be in-bounding the ball with ~4-5 seconds on the clock, depending on which of the two missed calls the refs whistle, and it is certainly possible that the Nuggets hit a similar shot to win the game. Regardless, the bottom-line here is that the series stands at 3-0, and the Mavs are finished.

Same 3-0 logic applies to the Cavs series, although this series was over at 0-0 once LeBron walked onto the court.

And without Kevin Garnett powering the Celtics, they’re going down to the Magic in six.  The Celtics gave us a great series against the Bulls, but Dwight Howard and the 3-point shooting Magic are going to be too much for the Celtics too overcome without KG.

That sets up an interesting Lakers-Nuggets battle out West, and a less-interesting Cavs-Magic series in the East.  It’s obvious that LeBron is on a mission and we are all witness.  While the Cavs will get tested (i.e., lose a game, maybe two) in this series, you can safely pencil LeBron and the Cavs into the NBA Finals.

Out West, the Nuggets are going to prove to be a dangerous opponent for the Lakers, particularly if the Cavs quickly dismantle the Magic and the Lakers start to look ahead to their much-hyped Finals opponent.  The Nuggets are surprisingly deep, and if Dahntay Jones can apply similarly effective Battier-like defense on Kobe, the Nuggets will have a fighting chance.  In the end, the Nuggets series will prove to be the Lakers “test of will” that the Rockets series should have been.  Lakers in 6.

Now, the ultimate showdown: Kobe and the Lakers vs. LeBron and the Cavs.  An NBA fan’s dream match-up!  (Not to mention the NBA execs – imagine the ratings for this one!)  I’ll save the more in-depth analysis for when this series actually comes to fruition, but in short, I expect the Lakers supporting cast to be too much for the Cavs.  LeBron might average a whooping 37-12-9 in the series, and likely outduel Kobe in the process, but can his teammates keep up with the Lakers’ Gasol, Bynum, and Odom?  I don’t think so.

LeBron vs. Kobe.  Lakers vs. Cavs.  An epic.  Lakers in 7.